M\u00fcharib\u0259 he\u00e7 d\u0259 xo\u015f bir reall\u0131q deyil. Bununla bel\u0259, b\u0259\u015f\u0259riyy\u0259tin minl\u0259rl\u0259 illik tarixind\u0259 g\u00f6rd\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fcz kimi, bu b\u0259z\u0259n sosial, iqtisadi v\u0259 ya milli qar\u015f\u0131durmalar\u0131n s\u0259b\u0259b oldu\u011fu qa\u00e7\u0131lmaz hald\u0131r.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
M\u00fcharib\u0259l\u0259r dayanm\u0131r, arenalar, s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259r v\u0259 m\u00fcbariz\u0259 \u00fcsullar\u0131 d\u0259yi\u015fs\u0259 d\u0259, insan m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259si faktoru d\u0259yi\u015fmir. B\u0259s m\u00fcharib\u0259l\u0259r investisiya d\u00fcnyas\u0131na nec\u0259 t\u0259sir edir?<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
M\u00fcharib\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n bazarlarda \u0259n b\u00f6y\u00fck tarixi t\u0259n\u0259zz\u00fcl, Nasist Almaniyas\u0131n\u0131n 1939-cu ild\u0259 o vaxtk\u0131 \u00c7exoslovakiya olan \u0259raziy\u0259 daxil olmas\u0131 v\u0259 1940-c\u0131 ild\u0259 Fransaya h\u00fccumu il\u0259 birlikd\u0259 ba\u015f verdi. S&P 500 n\u00f6vb\u0259ti 22 ticar\u0259t g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0259rzind\u0259 m\u00fcvafiq olaraq 20,5% v\u0259 25,8% d\u00fc\u015fd\u00fc. Bu hadis\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259n bir il sonra bazar, m\u00fcvafiq olaraq, 19% v\u0259 9,2% artaraq, eni\u015fin bir hiss\u0259sini aradan qald\u0131rd\u0131.\u00a0<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Bundan ba\u015fqa S&P 500 Pearl Harbor<\/strong> h\u00fccumundan sonra bir g\u00fcnd\u0259 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 11% d\u0259y\u0259r itirdi. M\u0259lum oldu\u011fu kimi ert\u0259si g\u00fcn AB\u015e Yaponiyaya, 4 g\u00fcn sonra, y\u0259ni 1941-ci il dekabr\u0131n 11-d\u0259 is\u0259 Almaniya AB\u015e-a m\u00fcharib\u0259 elan etdi. B\u00fct\u00fcn bu qar\u0131\u015f\u0131ql\u0131qlara baxmayaraq, S&P bir il sonra 15,3% y\u00fcks\u0259ldi.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n Vyetnam m\u00fcharib\u0259si v\u0259 \u00fcmumilikd\u0259 h\u0259r iki K\u00f6rf\u0259z m\u00fcharib\u0259si bazarda son d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259 q\u0131sa m\u00fcdd\u0259tli eni\u015fl\u0259r\u0259, ard\u0131ndan is\u0259 uzun qalx\u0131\u015f trayektoriyalar\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olan m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259l\u0259r\u0259 misald\u0131r. Sovet \u0130ttifaq\u0131 1979-cu ild\u0259 \u018ffqan\u0131stan\u0131 i\u015f\u011fal ed\u0259rk\u0259n, \u00fcmumilikd\u0259 12 g\u00fcn ard\u0131c\u0131l olaraq indeksl\u0259rd\u0259 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 3,8% azalma m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 edildi. 2014-c\u00fc ild\u0259 Rusiya Kr\u0131m\u0131 alanda 2% azalma oldu.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n Tarix biz\u0259 indi g\u00f6rd\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fcz kimi qeyri-m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n d\u00f6vrl\u0259rin ad\u0259t\u0259n s\u0259hm bazar\u0131n\u0131n \u0259n \u00e7ox \u0259ziyy\u0259t \u00e7\u0259kdiyi d\u00f6vr oldu\u011funu g\u00f6st\u0259rir. 2015-ci ild\u0259 \u0130sve\u00e7r\u0259 Maliyy\u0259 \u0130nstitutunun t\u0259dqiqat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya M\u00fcharib\u0259sind\u0259n sonra AB\u015e-\u0131n h\u0259rbi m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259l\u0259r tarixin\u0259 n\u0259z\u0259r yetirdil\u0259r v\u0259 a\u015fkar etdil\u0259r ki, m\u00fcharib\u0259d\u0259n \u0259vv\u0259lki m\u0259rh\u0259l\u0259d\u0259, m\u00fcharib\u0259 ehtimal\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 s\u0259hm qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin azalmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olur, lakin m\u00fcharib\u0259nin ba\u015flamas\u0131 onlara olan qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri art\u0131r\u0131r. Ancaq m\u00fcharib\u0259nin g\u00f6zl\u0259nilm\u0259d\u0259n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hallarda s\u0259hml\u0259rin qiym\u0259tl\u0259ri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr. T\u0259dqiqat\u00e7\u0131lar bu fenomeni “m\u00fcharib\u0259 tapmacas\u0131” adland\u0131rd\u0131lar v\u0259 bir n\u00f6qt\u0259d\u0259n sonra m\u00fcharib\u0259 ba\u015flayanda ehtiyatlar\u0131n niy\u0259 \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 artmas\u0131n\u0131n he\u00e7 bir ayd\u0131n izahat\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u0259dil\u0259r.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n Tarixi z\u0259mind\u0259n baxd\u0131qda, bu misallardan da g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fck ki, Ukrayna – Rusiya m\u00fcharib\u0259sinin nec\u0259 davam etm\u0259si \u00fcmumi indeksin inki\u015faf\u0131na uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rm\u0259y\u0259 bil\u0259r. Lakin m\u00f6vcud geosiyasi g\u0259rginliyin bu q\u0259d\u0259r vacib olmas\u0131n\u0131n v\u0259 bazarda bu q\u0259d\u0259r d\u0259yi\u015fk\u0259nliyi g\u00f6rm\u0259yimizin s\u0259b\u0259bi silahl\u0131 m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259 t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sinin 2-ci D\u00fcnya M\u00fcharib\u0259sind\u0259n b\u0259ri \u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k inflyasiya t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259n biri il\u0259 \u00fcst-\u00fcst\u0259 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259sidir.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n Bu da bir h\u0259qiq\u0259tdir ki, Rusiya il\u0259 daha geni\u015f m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259 neft bazarlar\u0131nda qeyri-sabitliy\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b ola bil\u0259r, \u00e7\u00fcnki Rusiya xam neft v\u0259 t\u0259bii qaz\u0131n \u0259sas istehsal\u00e7\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r v\u0259 boru k\u0259m\u0259rl\u0259ri Avropan\u0131n bir \u00e7ox hiss\u0259sini qidaland\u0131r\u0131r. \u018fg\u0259r Rusiya t\u0131xac\u0131n\u0131 ba\u011flasa v\u0259 ya neft infrastrukturuna ciddi ziyan vursa, bu, enerji qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin artmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b ola bil\u0259r. Qara v\u0259 Baltik d\u0259nizl\u0259ri \u0259traf\u0131ndak\u0131 limanlarda fasil\u0259l\u0259r daha da b\u00f6y\u00fck probleml\u0259r yarada bil\u0259r v\u0259 tax\u0131l kimi dig\u0259r \u0259sas m\u0259hsullar\u0131n d\u0259nizd\u0259 ili\u015fib qalmas\u0131 s\u0259b\u0259bind\u0259n \u0259rzaq inflyasiyas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b ola bil\u0259r.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n